Resentment from voters is corrosive - 4th January 2017

Resentment from ordinary voters is corrosive to our political elite

THEO THEOPHANOUS, Herald Sun

January 4, 2017 12:00am

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POLITICIANS have misread the conflation of factors that are guiding voting behaviour. In a politically correct environment and at a time of uncertainty, when ordinary people’s fears are being ignored, latent anti-establishment, authoritarian and even xenophobic attitudes become more potent and voter behaviour less predictable.

Today these fears go beyond increasing crime and uncertain economic wellbeing. They include fears about terrorism and the threat to our way of life from outsiders. So we avert a terrorist threat in Melbourne before Christmas and politicians insist on being politically correct by saying it has nothing to do with Islam.

That helps unleash hidden anti-establishment, authoritarian or xenophobic attitudes that long for strong leaders who will address their fears without dismissing them as bigotry.

More than 60 years ago, Theodor W Adorno and his colleagues tried to measure what attitudes within ordinary Germans led Europe into its darkest days in World War II. They constructed a scale to measure deep and often hidden attitudes that yearn for strong leadership, greater discipline and protection of a way of life from outsiders.

Adorno’s “F” Scale has been refined but remains an important tool for political analysis. Appeal to such attitudes is part of politicians’ armoury and has been exploited by Trump, Yeltsin, Le Pen, Putin and others in recent times.

To understand the upset election of Donald Trump or the Brexit vote, or even the rise of Pauline Hanson, we must look beyond traditional analysis. We have to explain why people will say one thing to pollsters but then vote for candidates who are shunned by the elite. There are 30 statements the updated F scale asks us to reflect upon and depending on whether we agree or disagree a profile of underlying attitudes is constructed. Here are a few:

OBEDIENCE and respect for authority are the most important virtues children should learn.

WHAT this country needs most,more than laws and political programs, is a few courageous, tireless, devoted leaders in whom the people can put their faith.

WHAT the youth needs most is strict discipline, rugged determination and the will to work and fight for family and country.

AN INSULT to our honour should always be punished.

PEOPLE can be divided into two classes: the weak and the strong.

THE TRUE American (Australian) way of life is disappearing so fast that force may be necessary to preserve it.

If you find yourself strongly agreeing, agreeing or even somewhat agreeing with those statements then according to the F scale you harbour elements of an authoritarian personality. (You can test your score on the F scale at www.anesi.com/fscale.htm)

In our liberal democracy, we like to think we have discarded the crude jokes and sexist comments and cast out homophobia or xenophobia from our behaviours and our thoughts — or have we?

Pro-Brexit demonstrators wave flags outside Parliament in London.

What if when responding to surveys many people mouth politically correct answers but in reality resent being told how to think? They say they support same-sex marriage when they don’t, they say they find sexism disgusting when they don’t, they say they believe Muslim women should be able to wear whatever they wish when they don’t, and so on. Then Donald Trump, running to be president of the United States, makes politically incorrect comments. He is accused of being lewd and racist. But in the polling booth a desire for a return to traditional values emerges, a return to strength, a return to “making America great”, white and safe again and they vote for Trump.

If this analysis is even partly correct, suppressed personalities, fears and thoughts of millions of Americans were always going to elect Trump — no matter how politically incorrect he might be.

This is not mere speculation. In a recent survey of 1800 Americans, Matthew McWilliams found that what defines Trump supporters is not that they’re white, poor or uneducated. In fact, a significant variable predicts whether a voter supports Trump: authoritarianism.

Authoritarians, he explains, are inclined to “obey”, to “rally to follow strong leaders and to respond aggressively to outsiders when they feel threatened”.

In Australia our political elites ignore the lessons of Trump and Brexit at their peril. There are the same economic, security and crime fears among a growing number of Australians, there is the underlying suspicion of some outsiders and the same longing for strong leaders who firmly address their fears.

If mainstream politicians want to take the community with them on Aboriginal recognition, same-sex marriage or non- discriminatory immigration they must recognise and address beliefs and fears about such things as Islamic terrorism and threats from those who do not share our values.

To not do so is to build hidden resentments in an electorate where many have had enough of being told what they should think and plays into the hands of the Hansons and the Trumps.

Theo Theophanous is a former state government minister